Improved active search

These predictions (10000 simulations per control scenario) are based on the 2000 MCMC iterations from commit 336a146c. Corresponding plots are in dropbox, here, https://www.dropbox.com/home/challenge-ASF/sims_model9-MCMC4-10000sim

ps.1 - MCMC4 is currently at 4000, so the csv filess here are a little bit out of date (but probably doesn't change much).

ps.2 - model10/MCMC is currently at about 700 iterations, but there are 5 of them which we can combine for better MCMC integration. So long as I didn't screw up the new parameterisation of active search we should hopefully switch to using that Wednesday morning.

ps.3 - Good luck! Don't hesitate if you need more info from me.

Don't let the name of the branch mislead you.

The "Improved Active Search" is implemented in model 10 only.

In model 9 (& model 8), the active search correction for a 2km radius was incomplete. This active search was localised (an improvement on report 1, where it was global), but switching to 2km only increased detection probabilities in the "away" (i.e. neighbouring) pixels and not in the "home" (central, i.e. where an IWB initialises the active search) pixel.

merged

mentioned in commit 25d02337